June 26, 2026

Current Alcohol Consumption Patterns Reflect Cyclical Reset, New Report Finds

Alcohol's recent volume declines may be cyclical rather than structural, and the market could be significantly mispricing that distinction. TD Cowen argues the real culprit is post-pandemic normalization and consumer affordability constraints, not lasting behavioral shifts driven by moderation, cannabis, or GLP-1 adoption.

Analysis of decades of consumption data shows alcohol maintaining a stable share of non-durable goods spending, with demand historically recovering once macro headwinds ease, a pattern they expect to repeat when economic conditions improve.

TD Cowen's proprietary U.S. model forecasts gross revenue to grow at a 1.3% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, with volumes stabilizing by 2027 if conditions improve. Current valuations already price in the bear case, meaning even a modest recovery could represent meaningful upside for alcohol stocks.

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